Business owners – from optimism to uncertainty in a volatile world

At a glance

• Early optimism has given way to fresh uncertainty following recent global events. Many business owners say it feels harder right now.
• However, UK SMEs have already navigated Brexit, Covid-19 and global instability, becoming leaner, more data-driven and more adaptable.
• Understanding what the business needs to deliver to be where you want to be is key.

Business owners have felt the mood shift in recent weeks. Optimism has dipped as global events increase uncertainty, and many say the landscape simply feels tougher. Yet years of shocks have made many UK SMEs more resilient and determined to focus on their ultimate aims according to business consultancy Elephant’s Child.

Just a few weeks ago, our conversations with business owners were starting to sound more optimistic. There were genuine discussions about the “green shoots” of recovery as many businesses began to feel confident about the year ahead.

But the global landscape can change quickly. Recent events in the Middle East have reminded us how interconnected and unpredictable the world economy can be. In a matter of weeks, sentiment has shifted from cautious optimism to renewed uncertainty. We’ve spoken to business owners in the last couple of weeks who are telling us it feels hard.

But we also know that for UK SMEs, this is not unfamiliar territory. Over the past six years, business owners have navigated extraordinary volatility. From Brexit to  Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine and the economic ripple effects that followed, it feels like we are permanently facing difficulties. Global events create shockwaves that reach far beyond their origin. But millions of the UK’s SMEs have become incredibly resilient, adapting to this constant change.

Over the past six years, SMEs have also absorbed major policy shocks, faced rising employment and compliance costs, and had to operate in a more regulated, data-driven environment. With the right support, many have become leaner, more data driven and more professional. This puts them in a stronger position for ongoing success.

In our conversations with business owners right now, we’re hearing understandable concerns and questions about what the future might hold. Rising fuel costs and energy prices, and the wider economic impact of geopolitical instability are all on people’s minds. But many of these factors sit firmly outside the control of business owners. .That’s why we always say: control the controllables. Focus on what is in your hands to manage.

Clarity and planning

Clarity is incredibly important. The most confident business owners we speak to are those who know exactly what they are working towards. They understand their personal and financial goals, and they know what their business needs to deliver to achieve them.

For those hoping to exit their business, a powerful starting point is to identify their financial freedom figure. This is the amount of wealth you need to generate to step away from your business and fund the next phase of your life, whether that’s retirement, a new venture or more freedom.

From there, the key questions become clearer:

• What do your pensions and investments currently look like?
• How much will your business need to contribute to reach that financial freedom figure?
• Is there a gap between where you are today and where you want to be?

This means that if the war in the Middle East, or the next issue that comes along, feels like one curveball too many, you can decide whether you can afford to exit your business.

Many owners have not taken the time to fully explore their options or understand what their exit journey might look like. Yet having that clarity can be incredibly empowering, even if you have no immediate plans to sell.

You can’t control global events. But you can control how prepared you are for whatever comes next.

Speak to us to find your financial freedom figure.The value of an investment with St. James’s Place will be directly linked to the performance of the funds you select and the value can therefore go down as well as up.  You may get back less than you invested.

We work in conjunction with an extensive network of external growth advisers and SME specialists, such as Elephants Child, who have been carefully selected by St. James’s Place.  The services provided by these specialists are separate and distinct to the services carried out by St. James’s Place and include advice on how to grow your business and prepare your business for sale and exit.

Where the opinions of third parties are offered, these may not necessarily reflect those of St. James’s Place.

SJP Approved 13/03/2026